2019 RBC Canadian Open DFS Preview

After witnessing Patrick Cantlay put on a clinic Sunday at the Memorial with a bogey-free eight under par 64, the PGA Tour makes a quick stop north of the border at the RBC Canadian Open before heading out to Pebble Beach for the US Open.  

Hamilton Golf and Country Club: Par 70, 6,966 yards.

Greens: Bentgrass

Average Driving Distance: (Hamilton 278 yards vs. PGA Tour Avg 283 yards)  

Hitting Fairways: Average (Hamilton 59% vs. PGA Tour Avg 62%)

Hitting Greens: (Hamilton 68% vs. PGA Tour Avg 66%)   

This is the first time since 2012 that the Canadian Open has been held at Hamilton Golf and Country Club as the tournament has been held nearly exclusively at Glen Abbey GC since then. Hamilton differs quite a bit from Glen Abbey which was more of a bombers layout. Hamilton will be the shortest course played on the PGA Tour this year measuring in at 6,966 yards with a par of 70. The course’s main defense will be its rough which was kept relatively long back in 2012. Scoring opportunities will come mainly from the course’s two short par fives that see birdies or better at a 45% rate along with the drivable par four 5th hole.

In terms of stats, the name of the game at Hamilton is hitting fairways for positioning then hitting good approaches with your scoring clubs to provide as many looks at birdie as you can get. 8 of the 12 par fours are under 450 yards so par four efficiency in that range will be key to success this week. Although we do not have a large sample size, it appears that strokes gained putting plays a bigger role than it does at most other PGA venues with the reasoning for this being the dispersion amongst players from shorter distances is smaller allowing putting to become an increased factor.

Here are our top stats to consider this week:

  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Strokes Gained Putting
  • Par 4 Efficiency 400-450 yards

This may possibly be the weakest field of the year in a non-alternate event on the PGA Tour after we look beyond DJ, Rory, Brooks Koepka, and JT at the top. Additionally, the fact the US Open is next week and being held nearly 3,000 miles away from the greater Toronto area also makes worth mentioning the increase risk of W/D for players who are in the field at Pebble Beach and get off to a slow start at Hamilton G&CC. Because of this, I will be scaling back the amount of bankroll I put in to play in cash games and high dollar GPP’s and instead focusing a bit more on multi-entry play in the lower dollar tournaments. However, even at reduced volume I will still be running out a main lineup for cash / single entry GPP’s so keeping in that context here are three targets for your DraftKings lineups:

Upper Mid-Range – Dustin Johnson – $11,900

I generally avoid starting cash game lineups with the most expensive player in the field but the drop off in the quality of the field from the highest priced guys is so steep it may make sense this week. DJ is clearly the class of the field this week and his putting and wedge game give him the nod over Brooks Koepka and Rory who are priced slightly less. There are a couple factors relating to motivation that cause me to look to DJ as well. First, as the son-in-law of Wayne Gretzky and the defending champion of the event I think DJ will be less prone to a DGAF performance or W/D here and pair that with that fact Brooks Koepka is in the field and DJ will be motivated to try and finish on top this time after Brooks got the best of him last time out at Bethpage. 

Mid-Range – Jim Furyk – $8,800

Along with Scott Piercy, who would be a good fit to pair with him with if taking the balanced lineup approach this week, Jim Furyk is the only player to win the Canadian Open at this venue since 2006. After a missed cut at a Bethpage course the he was clearly not suited for, Furyk has rebounded with a 13th at Colonial and a 33rd place finish at the Memorial. The iron game is still in good form as he gained an average of 2.5 stokes on approach over the past to weeks to go along with an average of 1.75 strokes gained putting over the same timeframe. The fact Hamilton will play as the shortest course on Tour this year puts it right in Furyk’s wheelhouse at this stage of his career.

Mid-Range – Adam Hadwin – $8,300

It has been over 60 years since a Canadian has won the Canadian Open and Adam Hadwin represents his country’s best hope this year. While he did regress a bit in the ball striking department last week at the Memorial he still gained 2 strokes off the tee and 4 strokes putting which bodes well on a track where putting is important. His long-term historical putting numbers are also some of the strongest in the field so if the iron games shows up this week he can hopefully put all facets of the game together for a strong finish in his national open.

How we did last week:

Cash/Single Entry Article Plays:

Matt Kuchar – MC

Emiliano Grillo – T9

Hideki Matsuyama – 6

Optimal Sports Subscribers Core Plays:

Matt Kuchar – MC

Emiliano Grillo – T9

Hideki Matsuyama – 6

Jim Furyk – T33

Adam Scott – 2

Ben An – T17

Last Week’s DraftKings Double Up Contest Result: Win

2018-2019 Season Double Up Record: 18-11

Record in Double Ups Since 1/1/18: 43-21

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